Authoritarianism and Ethno-Nationalism in Contemporary U.S. Governance

A Threat Assessment of the Trump Administration’s Executive Actions, Rhetoric, and Institutional Impact

Author: Heath Curry, BridgePoint Advocacy.

Date: August 07, 2025

Executive Summary

This paper assesses the authoritarian and ethno-nationalist risks posed by President Donald J. Trump’s governance in his second term (January–August 2025), drawing on comparative political science, historical 'strongman' case studies, and legal analysis. Using the frameworks of Umberto Eco’s Ur-Fascism, Robert Paxton’s stages of fascism, Jason Stanley’s How Fascism Works, and contemporary authoritarian risk assessment tools, the analysis finds:- Ethno-nationalist rhetoric and policy — framing nonwhite immigrants as biological threats (“poisoning the blood of our country”) and structuring immigration enforcement to target a racialized out-group — are present at a scale unprecedented in modern U.S. politics.- Authoritarian consolidation — via Schedule F reinstatement, Supreme Court-enabled mass agency firings, functional 'hollowing out' of congressionally created agencies, and judicial deference on emergency orders — has accelerated.- Institutional guardrails — Congress, courts, independent agencies — are eroding not necessarily through formal abolition, but through operational incapacitation and reorganization without legislative consent.- Detention and due-process risks — mass militarized detention capacity, expedited removals without adequate habeas access, and nationwide injunction limits — mirror strongman strategies elsewhere.

I. Framework for Analysis

Defining Ethno-Nationalism: National belonging is defined by ethnicity/ancestry, often elevating a 'core' group while excluding minorities as permanent outsiders. Policy serves the demographic and cultural dominance of that core.

Defining Authoritarianism: Executive power is concentrated in one leader, constrained only nominally by institutions, with neutral state functions repurposed for partisan or personal loyalty.

Warning Signs (Eco / Paxton / Stanley): Cult of the leader, demonization of out-groups, weaponization of the administrative state, delegitimization of elections and independent media, law-and-order as political theater, erosion of neutral institutions.

II. Evidence of Ethno-Nationalist Policy and Rhetoric

A. Rhetoric: 'Poisoning the blood of our country' echoes Nazi-era biological threat framing; anti-Muslim entry bans; selective refugee preferences favoring white Afrikaners.

B. Policy Actions: Family separation; nationwide expedited removal; mass militarized detention facilities; wrongful detention of citizens of color.

III. Evidence of Authoritarian Consolidation

Civil Service Capture: Schedule F reinstatement; mass firings enabled by SCOTUS emergency orders; Department of Education downsizing; USAID dissolution in progress.

Institutional Hollow-Out Without Congress: Operational collapse of agencies without statutory repeal; proposed transfer of student loan collections.

IV. Due Process and Rule of Law Risks

Habeas corpus threats; expedited removals bypassing judges; restrictions on nationwide injunctions; siting detention on military bases.

VI. Risk Assessment Matrix (Aug 7, 2025)

Domain	Current Risk Level	Evidence Summary
Ethno-nationalist rhetoric	Severe	‘Poisoning the blood,’ Muslim-targeted bans, racialized refugee preference.
Targeted enforcement & collective punishment	High	Family separation, expedited removal, militarized detention.
Civil service capture	Severe	Schedule F, SCOTUS-enabled RIFs, conversion lists.
Institutional hollow-out	High	USAID/ED operational collapse without Congress.
Due-process erosion	High	Habeas threats, injunction limits, base siting.
Law-and-order theater	Elevated	Federal deployments, politicized force.

VII. Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions: The current trajectory places the U.S. in mid-stage authoritarianism with ethno-nationalist governance characteristics; Supreme Court deference accelerates consolidation; suppression operates through legalism and operational incapacitation.

Recommendations: Legislative guardrails; judicial transparency; oversight and documentation; civil society preparedness; appropriations controls.

Appendix A: Comparative Analysis with Project 2025

This appendix compares the findings in the primary white paper with the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, identifying areas of direct correlation, policy overlap, and ideological alignment. Project 2025 functions as a governance blueprint, and many of its recommendations are reflected in the 2025 actions of the Trump administration.

White Paper Finding	Project 2025 Alignment
Schedule F / Civil-service purge	Direct: Replacement plan using Schedule F and a pre-vetted loyalty database of appointees.
Hollow-out of agencies (USAID, ED)	Direct: Proposed abolition or dissolution of multiple agencies, including Education.
Executive power consolidation	Direct: Advocates a 'unitary executive' model with unchecked presidential authority.
Military-style immigration enforcement	Direct: Supports mass detention, forced removals, and use of the military in civilian immigration enforcement.
Due process erosion	Direct: Calls for weakening judicial protections via immigration and administrative changes.
Christian nationalist policies	Direct: Campaigns on abortion bans, rolling back LGBTQ protections, and censorship of gender identity expression.

Context & Implications:The white paper documents the implementation of policies in 2025 that align closely with Project 2025's agenda. While not all proposals in Project 2025 have been enacted, there is a high degree of correlation in structural tactics, especially in civil service capture, agency dismantling, and authoritarian executive consolidation.

Appendix B: Texas Gerrymandering and "You Won’t Have to Vote Again" Rhetoric

This appendix examines two elements relevant to authoritarian and ethno-nationalist risk: (1) the Texas Legislature’s mid-decade redistricting effort aligned with Trump’s political objectives; (2) Trump’s campaign-trail remarks suggesting that if he won, supporters would not 'have to vote again.' Both illustrate structural and rhetorical threats to democratic norms.

1. Texas Redistricting and Midterm Strategy

In 2025, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, with vocal support from former President Trump, initiated a special session to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, outside of the normal post-census cycle. The proposed maps would create up to five new Republican-leaning U.S. House districts ahead of the 2026 midterms. Fifty-seven Democratic legislators fled the state to deny quorum, citing the maps as extreme partisan gerrymanders that dilute minority representation. The move has been described by voting rights advocates as an attempt to entrench GOP power and influence control of the U.S. House through structural manipulation.

2. "You Won’t Have to Vote Again" Remarks

In July 2024, during a speech to Christian conservative audiences, Trump stated: 'In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good. … You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.' While some allies claimed this was rhetorical exaggeration, critics interpreted it as authoritarian in tone, implying a future in which electoral participation is unnecessary or meaningless under his rule.

3. Implications and Authoritarian Parallels

Both the Texas redistricting effort and Trump’s remarks represent authoritarian-adjacent tactics: the former manipulates electoral structures to predetermine outcomes, and the latter undermines the perceived necessity of elections. Unlike outright abolition of elections seen in totalitarian regimes, these operate within a legalistic framework, maintaining the form of democracy while eroding its function—a hallmark of competitive authoritarianism.

Visual Timeline of Key Actions (2025)

Date	Event
Jan 20	Reinstatement of Schedule F via Executive Order; OPM issues agency guidance.
Feb–Mar	Mass layoffs begin at multiple agencies; USAID dissolution plan announced.
Mar 11	Department of Education announces ~50% Reduction in Force.
June	Supreme Court curtails nationwide injunctions; immigration due-process access narrows.
July 8	SCOTUS emergency order lifts injunctions, enabling resumed agency-wide RIFs.
July	Trump campaign reiterates 'poisoning the blood' rhetoric; Texas redistricting session begins.
Aug	Fort Bliss detention facility expansion underway toward 5,000-bed capacity.

Risk Heat-Map (August 7, 2025)

This heat-map summarizes the assessed severity of authoritarian and ethno-nationalist risks based on current policy actions, rhetoric, and structural changes.

Risk Domain	Severity
Ethno-nationalist rhetoric	Severe
Targeted enforcement & collective punishment	High
Civil service capture	Severe
Institutional hollow-out	High
Due-process erosion	High
Law-and-order theater	Elevated